Both bets, computed
| Bet | Wins | Payout | House edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Banker | 45.8597% | 1:1 less 5% commission | 1.0579% |
| Player | 44.6247% | 1:1 | 1.2351% |
| Tie (9:1) | 9.5156% | 9:1 | 4.8440% |
| Tie (8:1) | 9.5156% | 8:1 | 14.3596% |
| Either pair | 7.4699% | 11:1 | 10.3614% |
Banker is the better bet at 1.0579% against 1.2351%, and that holds despite the commission it pays and the player bet does not.
Why the banker wins more often
Baccarat's drawing rules are not symmetric. The player acts first on a fixed rule: draw on 0 to 5, stand on 6 or 7. The banker then acts knowing what the player drew, on a rule table that uses that information.
That single asymmetry is the whole thing. Acting second with more information is worth 1.2350 percentage points of win rate: 45.8597% against 44.6247%.
An example makes it concrete. With a two-card total of 3 the banker draws on almost any player third card but stands when the player drew an 8, because an 8 has probably damaged the player's hand rather than helped it. The player has no equivalent rule because the player goes first.
What the commission is for
Without commission, the banker bet would carry an edge of -1.2351% — which is to say the player would hold that advantage over the house. No casino can offer that.
The 5% charge on winning banker bets removes the advantage and leaves a small house edge. Our commission page covers what happens at tables that charge a different rate.
What this means in practice
Bet banker. Every time. It is cheaper than player by 0.1772 percentage points, and there is no situation, streak or shoe composition in which player becomes the better bet. Baccarat has no decisions, so this is the only choice you make.
Both bets push on a tie, which happens 9.52% of the time.
Frequently Asked Questions
- Is banker or player better in baccarat?
- Banker, at 1.0579% against 1.2351%. It wins more hands and remains cheaper even after the 5% commission.
- Why does the banker win more often?
- Because the banker draws after seeing the player's third card, on a rule table that uses that information. Acting second is worth 1.23 percentage points of win rate.
- Why is there a commission on banker bets?
- Without it the banker bet would give the player an advantage of 1.24%. The commission converts that into a small house edge.
- Should I ever bet player?
- No. There is no shoe composition or streak that makes it the better bet.
Every figure on this page is computed by walking the complete baccarat game tree for a real eight-deck shoe, drawing without replacement so the shoe depletes correctly, in exact rational arithmetic. Because baccarat has no player decisions, this is an exact answer rather than an approximation. The results are checked against published values before publication. Commission and side-bet payouts vary between tables, so read the felt.