What a fair payout would be
Ties occur on 9.5156% of hands, computed across the full eight-deck game tree. That is roughly one hand in 10.5.
A fair payout would therefore be about 9.51:1. Casinos pay 8:1 or 9:1.
| Bet | Wins | Payout | House edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Banker | 45.8597% | 1:1 less 5% commission | 1.0579% |
| Player | 44.6247% | 1:1 | 1.2351% |
| Tie (9:1) | 9.5156% | 9:1 | 4.8440% |
| Tie (8:1) | 9.5156% | 8:1 | 14.3596% |
| Either pair | 7.4699% | 11:1 | 10.3614% |
At 8:1 the tie costs 14.3596%, which is fourteen times the banker bet. At 9:1 it costs 4.8440%, still more than four times as much.
The gap between the two payouts
Moving from 8:1 to 9:1 saves 9.52 percentage points. To put that in proportion, the entire banker bet costs 1.0579%, so the difference between two tie schedules is nine times the cost of the best bet on the table.
9:1 tables exist and are worth finding if you insist on the bet, but the honest framing is that the better version of a bad bet is still a bad bet.
Why players make it anyway
Because a tie feels overdue. Baccarat scoreboards track long runs, and after twenty hands without a tie the bet looks like value. Each hand is independent and the probability is 9.5156% every time, regardless of what the board shows.
The tie is also the only bet on the table with a large payout, which is its whole appeal. Our banker against player page covers the two bets that are actually priced sensibly.
Frequently Asked Questions
- What is the house edge on the baccarat tie bet?
- 14.3596% at 8:1 and 4.8440% at 9:1. It is by far the worst bet on the table.
- How often is a baccarat hand a tie?
- 9.5156% of hands, or roughly one in 10.5.
- What would a fair tie payout be?
- About 9.51:1. Casinos pay 8:1 or 9:1.
- Is a 9:1 tie table worth seeking out?
- It saves 9.52 percentage points, but the bet still costs 4.84% against 1.0579% for banker.
Every figure on this page is computed by walking the complete baccarat game tree for a real eight-deck shoe, drawing without replacement so the shoe depletes correctly, in exact rational arithmetic. Because baccarat has no player decisions, this is an exact answer rather than an approximation. The results are checked against published values before publication. Commission and side-bet payouts vary between tables, so read the felt.