How the bet works
Player Pair and Banker Pair each win if the first two cards of that hand are the same rank. They are settled before any third card is drawn and have nothing to do with who wins the hand.
Rank, not value, is what counts. A ten and a jack are both worth zero in baccarat but they are not a pair.
The arithmetic
An eight-deck shoe holds 416 cards, 32 of each rank. Once the first card is dealt, 31 of the remaining 415 match it. So the bet wins 31/415, or 7.4699% of the time.
A fair payout would be 12.39:1. The table pays 11:1, and that shortfall is a house edge of 10.3614%.
Against the rest of the table
| Bet | Wins | Payout | House edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Banker | 45.8597% | 1:1 less 5% commission | 1.0579% |
| Player | 44.6247% | 1:1 | 1.2351% |
| Tie (9:1) | 9.5156% | 9:1 | 4.8440% |
| Tie (8:1) | 9.5156% | 8:1 | 14.3596% |
| Either pair | 7.4699% | 11:1 | 10.3614% |
At 10.3614% the pair bets sit between the tie at 9:1 and the tie at 8:1. They are the second and third worst wagers available, and roughly ten times the cost of simply backing the banker.
Why fewer decks make it worse
This is one of the rare bets where a smaller shoe hurts the player. With six decks the bet wins 23 of 311 rather than 31 of 415, which is a slightly lower probability for the same 11:1 payout.
So a six-deck table is marginally worse for pair bets and marginally better for everything else. Our main bets page covers the wagers where the deck count works in your favour.
Frequently Asked Questions
- What is the house edge on baccarat pair bets?
- 10.3614% on an eight-deck shoe, against 1.0579% for the banker bet.
- How often does a pair appear?
- 31 times in 415, or 7.4699% of hands, since 31 of the remaining cards match the first one dealt.
- Do a ten and a jack count as a pair?
- No. Both are worth zero in baccarat, but the bet is settled on rank, not value.
- Are pair bets worth playing?
- Not on the arithmetic. They cost roughly ten times the banker bet.
Every figure on this page is computed by walking the complete baccarat game tree for a real eight-deck shoe, drawing without replacement so the shoe depletes correctly, in exact rational arithmetic. Because baccarat has no player decisions, this is an exact answer rather than an approximation. The results are checked against published values before publication. Commission and side-bet payouts vary between tables, so read the felt.