Card counting

Every explanation of this asserts the Hi-Lo values and tells you to memorise them. They are not arbitrary. Remove one card of each rank from the deck, reprice the game, and the system falls out of the answer.

A counting system is a table of effects of removal, rounded. Below is that table, computed rather than quoted: what happens to the house edge when one card of each rank leaves the deck. The signs reproduce Hi-Lo exactly, and the build refuses to publish this page if they do not.

The table the system is made of

Rank removedHouse edge movesWho that helpsHi-Lo says
Ace+1.0205 ppthe house-1
2-0.4710 ppthe player+1
3-0.5440 ppthe player+1
4-0.7063 ppthe player+1
5-0.8918 ppthe player+1
6-0.5374 ppthe player+1
7-0.3720 ppthe player0
8-0.0514 ppthe player0
9+0.1146 ppthe house0
Ten, Jack, Queen or King+0.5482 ppthe house-1

Read one row. Take a five out of the deck and the house edge falls by 0.8918 percentage points, so the player is better off. A counter therefore wants fives gone, and the system records that as +1. Take an ace out and the edge rises by 1.0205 points, so the player is worse off, and the system records −1. That is the whole idea. Everything else is bookkeeping.

Four things the table says that the usual explanation does not

The five is the most valuable card in the deck. At 0.8918 points it beats every other low card, and it is the reason a five-count was the earliest system anyone published. Hi-Lo flattens it to +1 alongside the 2, which is worth less than half as much.

The ace is bigger than any low card. At 1.0205 points it is the largest single effect on the table, roughly twice the 2. Hi-Lo still scores it −1, the same as a ten worth 0.5482. That compression is exactly why serious players keep a separate side count of aces: the main count is throwing away information about the most important rank.

The eight is the real neutral, not the middle of 7-8-9. At 0.0514 points it is as close to nothing as any rank gets.

And the nine leans the wrong way. Removing a nine raises the house edge, by 0.1146 points. Hi-Lo calls it zero for simplicity; systems that carry more values, like Hi-Opt II and Omega II, give the nine a number for this reason.

What this does not tell you

This is the foundation, not a system to play. It says which cards a counter wants gone and how much each one is worth. It does not tell you how to convert a running count into a true count, what bet spread to use, how deeply a shoe must be dealt for any of it to pay, or how to avoid being asked to leave. Those are separate problems and this page does not pretend to solve them.

It is also worth being blunt about the size of the prize. Under a standard rule set this site computes at 0.5153%, a counter is trying to turn a small negative into a small positive. Sit at a 6:5 table, which costs 1.39 percentage points on its own, and no count available recovers it. The rules you choose before you sit down decide more than the arithmetic you do afterwards.

Is it legal

Yes. Counting cards is thinking about information available to everyone at the table, and no jurisdiction in our law table makes it a crime. Casinos are private businesses and can refuse service, which people often confuse for illegality. Being asked to leave is not the same as breaking a law.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why is a 2 worth +1 and a 9 worth 0?
Because removing a 2 lowers the house edge by 0.4710 percentage points while removing a 9 raises it by 0.1146. The counter wants low cards gone and high cards left, and the sign of the effect is where the value comes from.
Which single card matters most?
The ace, at 1.0205 percentage points, more than any low card. That is why serious Hi-Lo players keep a separate side count of aces even though the ace is only worth -1 in the main count.
Which card is the true neutral?
The 8, at -0.0514 percentage points, which is as close to nothing as any rank gets. The 9 actually leans slightly towards the house, which is why some systems give it a value where Hi-Lo does not.
Is card counting illegal?
No. It is thinking, and no jurisdiction on this site's law table criminalises it. Casinos are private businesses and may refuse service, which is a different thing from a law being broken.
Does counting still work?
The arithmetic on this page does not expire. What has changed is the game around it: continuous shufflers, worse penetration and 6:5 blackjack, which costs 1.39 percentage points on its own and swamps what a count can recover.

The table above is produced by counting_math.py at build time. It replaces the engine's rank distribution with a single deck missing one card, reprices the whole game with blackjack_math.py, and takes the difference. The engine draws independently from a fixed distribution rather than modelling a shoe as it depletes, so the magnitudes run larger than a full finite-deck analysis gives; the signs and the ordering, which are what a counting system is made of, are what this is for. The build checks the computed signs against Hi-Lo and refuses to write this page if any rank disagrees. Last computed September 2026.