Played correctly under a standard rule set, blackjack costs about 0.52%, which makes it one of the best games on a casino floor. Played at the wrong table, it costs three times that.
Each figure below comes from running the full expected-value calculation twice: once with the rule and once without. Nothing here is a quoted delta.
| Rule | Effect on house edge | Resulting edge |
|---|---|---|
| Blackjack pays even money | +2.25 pp | 2.765% |
| Blackjack pays 6:5 | +1.35 pp | 1.865% |
| Dealer hits soft 17 | +0.22 pp | 0.735% |
| No double after split | +0.13 pp | 0.645% |
| Double on 9-11 only | +0.09 pp | 0.605% |
| Late surrender allowed | -0.09 pp | 0.425% |
The order matters more than the numbers
Read the blackjack payout first. A 6:5 table costs 1.35 percentage points, more than every other rule on this page combined. Nothing else is close, and no combination of good rules rescues it.
Then the dealer rule. Hitting soft 17 costs 0.22. Prefer S17, but never walk past a 3:2 payout to get it.
Then the small print. Double after split, doubling freedom and surrender are worth a tenth of a point or so each. Real, but decided after the first two.
Then play it correctly
All of the above assumes correct basic strategy. Without it the rules barely matter: instinctive play typically runs 1.5% to 2.5%, which swamps every variation on this page.
Our basic strategy chart gives the computed action for every hand, and the dealer upcard odds behind it explain why the chart says what it says.
Every page in this section
- Basic strategy chart — the computed action for every hand against every dealer upcard.
- Dealer upcard odds — bust probability for each upcard, and why it drives the chart.
- Splitting pairs — which pairs to split, and the two rules that are always right.
- Soft hands — why a hand with an ace counting eleven plays completely differently.
- Doubling down — when to press a bet, and what a restricted table costs.
- Double after split — the small rule that decides whether to split fours.
- Surrender — the four hands worth folding for half a bet.
- 6:5 blackjack — the single most expensive rule in the game.
- H17 against S17 — the dealer rule printed on every felt.
- Insurance — the side bet that is never correct without counting.
Two things that are not decisions
Insurance and even money both lose money in every deck size and every card composition. Decline both, every time.
Frequently Asked Questions
- What is the house edge in blackjack?
- About 0.52% with correct basic strategy under standard rules. The rules at your table can take it above 1.5%.
- What is the single worst blackjack rule?
- A 6:5 payout on a natural, at +1.35 percentage points. It costs more than every other common rule variation combined.
- Does blackjack have the lowest house edge in the casino?
- It is among the lowest for a game of skill, but craps free odds carry a 0% edge and full-pay video poker can approach 100% return.
- Do I need to count cards?
- No. Basic strategy alone produces the 0.52% figure. Counting is a separate discipline and is not needed to play the game well.
- Where do these numbers come from?
- An expected-value engine that plays the game out by recursion and measures each rule by re-running the whole calculation with it changed.
Every figure on this page is computed by an expected-value engine that plays the game out: it derives the dealer's final-total distribution by recursion, evaluates standing, hitting, doubling and splitting at each decision, and takes the best. Rule costs are measured by re-running the whole calculation with the rule changed, not by quoting a published delta. The model assumes independent card draws, which sits a few hundredths of a percent from an exact shoe analysis; the rule differences it produces match published values. Rules vary by table, so read the felt.