The matchups worth knowing
| Hand | Against | Equity | Situation |
|---|---|---|---|
| AS AH | KS KH | 82.64% | Pair against a lower pair |
| AS KS | QS QH | 45.88% | Overcards against a pair, the classic race |
| AS KH | 2S 2H | 47.74% | Two overcards against the smallest pair |
| AS AH | 7S 2H | 88.98% | The best hand against the worst |
| AS KH | AD QC | 74.02% | Dominated: same top card, worse kicker |
The middle row is the one poker calls a coinflip. Two overcards against a pair is 45.88% for the overcards, which is close enough to even that the name is fair.
Suits move these numbers more than people think
Almost every source quotes one figure per hand class. The real value depends on the exact cards, and the gap is not small.
| Matchup | Suits | Equity for the better hand |
|---|---|---|
| AS KH vs AD QC | Both offsuit | 74.02% |
| AS KS vs AH QD | AK suited, AQ offsuit | 75.56% |
| AS KS vs AH QH | Both suited, different suits | 71.28% |
AK against AQ swings 4.3 percentage points across suit configurations. When both hands are suited in different suits, the dominated hand picks up flush equity the raw class figure does not show.
The same holds for pairs. AA against KK is 82.64% when the aces share both suits with the kings, and 81.26% when they share none. Sharing suits blocks the smaller pair's flush outs, and that is worth 1.4 percentage points.
What to take from this
A big pair against a smaller one is roughly 4 to 1. It does not become a coinflip because your opponent has been running well.
Overcards against a pair is genuinely close. At 54.12% the pair is a small favourite, and calling it a coinflip is honest.
Domination is the expensive spot. AQ against AK wins only about a quarter of the time, and the hands look similar enough that players get all their chips in.
After the flop, the numbers on our outs and equity page take over, and pot odds turn them into decisions.
Frequently Asked Questions
- What is AA against KK preflop?
- Between 81.26% and 82.64% depending on the suits. Sharing suits with the kings blocks their flush outs.
- Is AK against a pair really a coinflip?
- Close to it: 45.88% for the overcards against a pair of queens, so the pair is a slight favourite.
- How much does domination cost?
- AQ against AK wins about a quarter of the time, and the exact figure moves by 4.3 points with the suits.
- Are these simulated?
- No. Each figure enumerates all 1,712,304 possible boards, so it is exact for those specific cards.
Equities on this page are computed by enumerating every one of the 1,712,304 boards that can follow the two hands shown, not by simulation, so they are exact for those specific cards. Draw and flop probabilities are exact combinatorics. The hand evaluator is checked against known orderings and the equities against published ranges before publication. Note that published figures usually quote one number per hand class while the real value moves with the suits, which is why this section names the exact cards.