A semi-bluff with a flush draw has two ways to win: the draw completes, or the opponent folds. Fold equity is the second, and it is what makes betting a draw better than calling with it.
It is also why aggression is worth more than card strength in many spots. Two unpaired cards make at least a pair on only 32.4% of flops, so both players miss most of the time and the pot tends to belong to whoever is willing to bet at it.
Fold equity disappears against opponents who do not fold, which is the entire reason bluffing a calling station loses money. It is a property of the opponent as much as of the hand.
Where the numbers come from
Related terms in poker
- Pot odds — The price a call is getting, compared against how often it needs to win.
- Outs — The cards remaining that would improve your hand to a likely winner.
- Equity — Your share of the pot, meaning how often you win it if the hand plays to showdown.
- Implied odds — The money you expect to win later if your draw comes in, beyond what is in the pot now.
- Position — Where you act in the betting order, and the largest structural edge in poker.
- Button — The dealer position, which acts last on every postflop street.
Where an entry quotes a number, that figure comes from the computed sections of this site rather than from another glossary, so the definition and the derivation cannot drift apart. Each entry links to the page where the number is worked out.