True odds

The payout that would make a bet exactly fair, with no advantage to either side.

True odds: The payout that would make a bet exactly fair, with no advantage to either side.

True odds are the ratio of losing outcomes to winning ones. A specific triple in sic bo lands once in 216 rolls, so true odds are 215:1. Casinos pay 180:1 or 150:1, and that gap is the entire house edge.

Comparing a payout to its true odds is the fastest way to price any bet, and it immediately shows that the size of a payout tells you nothing. A 180:1 payout sounds generous and costs 16.20%; an even-money bet in baccarat costs 1.06%.

One bet in a casino pays exactly true odds: the free odds wager in craps, available only behind a line bet. Its house edge is precisely zero, not approximately zero.

Where the numbers come from

Related terms in odds & money

  • House edge — The average share of each bet the casino expects to keep over the long run.
  • RTP — Return to player: the mirror of house edge, quoted as what comes back rather than what is kept.
  • Expected value — The average result of a bet if it could be repeated indefinitely.
  • Variance — How widely results scatter around their expected value.
  • Standard deviation — A measure of how far results typically stray from the average.
  • Bankroll — The money set aside for gambling, kept separate from money needed for anything else.

Where an entry quotes a number, that figure comes from the computed sections of this site rather than from another glossary, so the definition and the derivation cannot drift apart. Each entry links to the page where the number is worked out.