What a tier actually measures
Loyalty tiers are not a record of how long you sat down or how much you won. They are a record of one number the casino computes about you, called theoretical loss, or theo on the floor.
The arithmetic is plain:
Theo = average bet × decisions per hour × house edge × hours played.
A supervisor rates your average bet, the system already knows the game's edge and its normal pace, and the clock supplies the rest. Nothing in that chain asks whether you were up or down. Your rating records exposure, and exposure was decided before the cards came out.
That single fact explains most of what looks arbitrary about comps. Two players who each lose $400 in an evening can be rated very differently, because rating tracks what was expected, not what happened.
The same money, six different ratings
The house edge sits in the formula as a multiplier, so the game you pick moves your theo far more than the amount you bet. The table below holds the average bet at $25 and the pace at 60 decisions an hour, so the edge is the only thing changing.
| Bet | House edge | Theo per hour, $25 × 60 decisions |
|---|---|---|
| Baccarat banker | 1.0579% | $15.87 |
| Craps Don't Pass | 1.36% | $20.40 |
| Craps Pass Line | 1.41% | $21.15 |
| European roulette | 2.70% | $40.50 |
| Craps Field | 2.78% | $41.70 |
| American roulette | 5.26% | $78.90 |
Identical money crossing the felt, and the American wheel produces close to five times the theo of the banker bet. That is why a $25 roulette player receives better offers than a $25 baccarat player, and it is also why the offers are not a compliment.
The free odds bet behind a Pass Line wager shows the other side of this. It carries no house edge at all, so it adds real money to the table and nothing to your theo. Most rating systems ignore it for exactly that reason.
Where comp value comes from
A property pays back some fraction of theo as rooms, food and free play. The fraction is set internally, varies by property and by how much the casino wants your visit, and is not published. The important arithmetic does not require knowing it.
Call that reinvestment rate r. Generate theo of T and you receive roughly r × T in benefits, having been expected to lose T. Your position is T − rT, which is T × (1 − r). Every property that stays open sets r below 1, so that number is negative.
Comps are a rebate on money you were already expected to lose. They are real value, and they are never new money.
Why chasing a tier goes backwards
Most programs run three to five tiers with a threshold at each step. The temptation near a threshold is to play a few more hours to cross it, and this is where the arithmetic turns hostile.
Those extra hours cost exactly what the first hours cost, because expected loss accrues at the same rate all evening. The reward is a benefit priced at retail rather than at what it is worth to you. A comped room you would not have booked is worth what a night's sleep is worth to you, not what the rate card says.
Three consequences follow directly:
- A higher tier reached by playing more is a rebate on a larger loss, not a discount on the same one.
- Switching to a higher-edge game to earn faster raises your theo and your expected loss in the same proportion.
- Tier credit earned inside a trip you were taking anyway is the only version of this that clearly pays.
Using the arithmetic instead of the tier
Pick the game on its edge first and let the rating fall where it falls. Sizing your average bet to what you were going to spend, rather than to a threshold, keeps the reinvestment rate working on a number you chose.
Ask the host what the offer is worth before you play toward it. A dollar figure lets you compare it against expected loss; a tier name does not. If the property will not quantify it, treat it as worth zero and play the game you would have played anyway.
Card everything you play, including the low-edge bets. The rating system will discount them correctly, and playing uncarded costs you the rebate without lowering the edge.
Terms used above are defined at theoretical loss, comp and house edge. If a session stops being entertainment you budgeted for, help is free and confidential.
Where the numbers on this site come from
This article is editorial. The reference sections below derive their figures from the cards, the dice or the pay table rather than quoting them, and each one shows the working:
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First published on this site's WordPress blog between September and December 2025; rewritten to this site's current standard in August 2026.