The jackpot line pays for the sign, not the player

Across every pay table on this site with a headline prize, the biggest number on the felt supplies almost none of what the bet gives back. This was not looked for. It turned up four times while computing other things.

On three of the four bets below, the top prize supplies under 1.2% of the return. The line that actually carries each bet is one nobody prints a sign about, and in two cases it is the lowest-paying line on the table.

The measurement

BetTop prizePaysIts share of the return
Ultimate Texas Hold'em, TripsRoyal flush50 to 10.20%
Let It RideRoyal flush1,000 to 10.68%
Three Card Poker, 6 Card BonusRoyal flush1,000 to 11.10%
Keno, 8 spotCatch all eight25,000 to 114.94%

Read the first row. The Trips bet advertises a royal flush at 50 to 1. Of everything that bet returns to players, the royal flush supplies 0.20%. Take the royal off the pay table entirely and the bet would cost a fifth of a percentage point more, which is less than the difference between two blackjack tables.

What is actually carrying each bet

BetThe line doing the workPaysIts share
Ultimate Texas Hold'em, TripsFlush7 to 126.07%
Let It RideTwo pair2 to 142.08%
Three Card Poker, 6 Card BonusThree of a kind7 to 129.91%
Keno, 8 spot7 hits1,500 to 133.10%

Two of these are the lowest-paying line on their own table. Three of a kind at 7 to 1 supplies more of the 6 Card Bonus than every other outcome combined, and it is the smallest number printed. The pattern is not an accident of these four schedules; it follows from how the arithmetic works. A prize a thousand times the stake occurring once in a hundred thousand hands returns a hundredth of what a prize seven times the stake occurring once in fourteen does.

Why the tables are built this way

A pay table has to do two jobs at once. It has to return a specific fraction of what is staked, which is arithmetic, and it has to make someone want to place the bet, which is not. The top line does the second job almost exclusively.

That is not deception. Every figure is printed, nothing is hidden, and a player who computes it can see what we just computed. But it does mean the number the eye lands on is the number carrying the least information about what the bet costs, and it is a reliable enough relationship to use as a habit.

The habit this suggests

When you look at a new pay table, read the bottom lines first: the small payouts on common hands. They decide what the bet costs and they are where casinos differ from each other. The top line is where they all look the same, because it costs almost nothing to be generous about something that almost never happens.

This is the same conclusion keno reaches from the other direction, where the board advertises 25,000 and the seven hit line quietly supplies twice as much of the return. And it is why the Pair Plus flush line matters more than any jackpot: moving that one payout from 4 to 3 takes the bet from 2.32% to 7.28%, which is a bigger change than deleting a royal flush from any table here.

How this was computed

Each bet's return is the sum, over every outcome, of that outcome's probability times its payout. The share attributed to a line is that line's own contribution divided by the total. Nothing here is estimated and no pay table is invented: the frequencies come from complete enumerations of 2,598,960, 20,358,520 and 133,784,560 card hands, and from keno's exact hypergeometric probabilities.

Figures are produced at build time by five_card_math.py, six_card_math.py, seven_card_math.py and side_games_math.py. Each checks its own category counts before anything is written; the six-card engine checks two of them against closed-form formulas rather than against a remembered table, after an earlier version of that check was itself wrong in two places while the engine was right. Every figure is in the open dataset under CC-BY. Last computed September 2026.